Animation S.1: Transition probabilities produced under different modeling approaches

Model:

Ordered Logistic (joint estimation)

• Ordered Logistic (joint estimation)
• Ordered Logistic (separate estimation)
• Stereotype
• Multinomial Logistic (Observed)

Black and White children raised in the

Middle 20%

• Top 20%
• 20% - 40%
• Middle 20%
• 60% - 80%
• Bottom 20%

of the wealth distribution: Where do they end up as adults?